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1st Quarter Economic Forecast Newsletter – Moffat & Routt Counties

1st Quarter Economic Forecast Newsletter – Moffat & Routt Counties

The Yampa Valley economy continues to remain strong overall, with most indicators showing improvement. Highlights from this edition of our quarterly Regional Economic Forecast News include:

  • Heading into the final two months of 2013, Routt County had posted its highest year-to-date retail sales in five years. Moffat County year-to-date retail sales also were running close to a five-year high.
  • Yampa Valley Data Partners’ analysis indicates that Routt County retail sales will grow by 4.5 percent and Moffat County retail sales will edge up by 1.7 percent this year. Don’t miss our area Retail Sales Forecast on page 8.
  • Unemployment rates in both counties held low in November 2013 and continue to compare favorably with Colorado and U.S. unemployment rates.
  • Real estate markets in both counties saw slight declines in average listing price over the final two months of 2013, but foreclosures remained low.
  • Energy data through the first three quarters of 2013 featured a 26% increase in oil production in Routt County and a 13% boost in Moffat; a sharp 62% rise in natural gas production in Routt; and very slight decreases in coal production in each county despite a 15% drop statewide.

We hope you’ll enjoy this edition of our Regional Economic Forecast News. Please feel free to view it on your screen or download a .pdf. Please be patient if you go the .pdf route as the file might take a minute to load.

Economic Newsletter Q1 2014

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Fast Facts December 2013

Fast Facts December 2013

Employment
The average unemployment rate in both Moffat and Routt counties remained in the mid-5% range for the third consecutive month, with rates in both counties remaining lower than the Colorado unemployment rate (6.5%) and the U.S. unemployment rate (7.0%).

Retail Sales
Year-over-year sales for September were up 5% in Routt County and down 5.2% in Moffat. Combined Routt and Moffat taxable sales for the month totaled better than $109 million, a 1.6% increase over September 2012.

Real Estate
Average November listing price in Moffat County climbed to $195,000, a high point for the year. Average listing price in Routt County increased to $545,000, the highest the average listing price has been since May.

Energy
Routt and Moffat counties combined to produce 49% of the coal mined statewide in September, although Colorado year-to-date coal production was down 17.6%. Oil production was up for the year in both Moffat (19.1%) and Routt (15.3%). Meanwhile, Routt County year-to-date gas production was running 64.5% ahead of the previous year.

Climate
Despite early-winter snow accumulation, Rabbit Ears is hovering at just 108% of average for snow-water content, while Buffalo Pass has dropped to 87% of average. Yampa River stream flow was running at 134% of average before being declared “frozen”

Fast Facts December 2013

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Fast Facts November 2013

Fast Facts November 2013

November  2013 Release

Employment
The average unemployment rate in both Moffat and Routt counties remained in the mid-5% range for the second consecutive month, with rates in both counties remaining lower than the Colorado unemployment rate (6.2%) and the U.S. unemployment rate (7.3%).

Retail Sales
Combined Moffat and Routt taxable sales in August totaled better than $107 million, a 2.2% increase over August 2012. At the individual county level, year-over-year sales were up 2.9% in Routt and 0.7% in Moffat.

Real Estate
Average October listing price in Moffat County climbed back to $185,000 to match the average listing price from two months earlier. In Routt County, average listing price in October held steady from the previous month at $495,000.

Energy
Routt and Moffat counties combined to produce 57% of the coal mined in Colorado in August. Year-to-date oil production in Moffat is up nearly 23 percent from the previous year, and natural gas production in Routt is 64.5% ahead of 2012 figures.

Climate
Although not as impressive as the numbers from October, early winter weather continues to keep November snow water content figures ahead of schedule, with Rabbit Ears at 165% of average and Buffalo Pass at 118%. Yampa stream flow is 123% of average.

Fast Facts November 2013

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Fast Facts – October 2013

Fast Facts – October 2013

Yampa Valley FastFacts – Key Takeaways

October 2013 Release

Employment
Latest available data continues to show that the 12-month average unemployment rate in both Routt and Moffat counties remains on the decline. Rates in both counties remain lower than the Colorado unemployment rate (7%) and the U.S. unemployment rate (7.2%).

Retail Sales
Combined Moffat and Routt taxable sales in July 2013 were $110 million, a 0.4% increase over the previous July. At the individual county level, Routt County year-over-year sales are up 3.7% while Moffat County year-over-year sales are down 6.5%.

Real Estate
Average September listing price in Moffat County was $169,000, a drop of more than 8% from the previous month – but an increase of better than 35% from the beginning of the year. In Routt County, average listing price in September was $495,000, down 4% from August and 14% since January.

Energy
July coal and natural gas production figures in Routt County were up considerably from the previous month, with a 169% rise in coal and a 71% increase in gas. Moffat County energy production figures decreased over the same month, although year-to-date oil production remains better than 26 percent ahead of the previous year.

Climate
Early winter weather has put snow water content figures for Rabbit Ears Pass and Buffalo Pass ahead of schedule, with the measuring sites respectively reporting totals at 242% and 180% of average. Average streamflow on the Yampa also remains above average at 116%.

FastFacts October 2013

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4th Quarter Economic Forecast Newsletter – Moffat & Routt Counties

4th Quarter Economic Forecast Newsletter – Moffat & Routt Counties

The Yampa Valley economy continues on a path to recovery. Most indicators with the exception of coal production, show improvement from the past quarter.

The unemployment rates in both counties have hit new lows with Routt at 5.3% and Moffat at 5.8%. The economic stress indicator remains within a normal balance which means unemployment is not stressing the Yampa Valley economy.

June retail sales in both counties were positive. Routt county had a strong June with lodging, food and beverage and construction sectors with double digit increases. The Forecast Center predicts national re-tail sales to be up for fourth quarter. Our counties normally track the same trends as national. October retail sales are forecasted up over last year 3.9%, November 3.7% and December 3.6%. The fourth quarter average 3% forecast will trickle over into January 2014 with a 3.1% retail sales forecast.

The real estate market has remained steady through the summer selling season. Average listing prices in Routt decreased to $515,000. Moffat’s August average listing price dipped slightly down to $185,000 from $189,000 in June and July. The number of homes for sale decreased in both counties in August perhaps indicating there were a number of sales in July. Foreclosures continue to decline with 2 foreclosures in Moffat and 8 in Routt for August.

The consumer confidence index has been in the 80s all summer. In September, the index dipped slight below 80 which is still strong compared to the 1st and 2nd quarters.

Yampa Valley energy has mixed results. Routt and Moffat County’s coal production was down 7.0% and 13.4% year-to-date re-spectively with a total state market share of 36.8%. Colorado coal production in general was down for the month of June.

Moffat County’s year-to-date oil and gas production was up 33.3% and 6.1% respec-tively. Year-to-date oil production in Routt was down 4.4% but natural gas production had a 41.6% increase.

Stream flow has increased since the end of August due to our wet September. Snow-pack numbers will return to the newsletter next issue.

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Fast Facts September 2013

Fast Facts September 2013

Energy

As of June 2013, Moffat County year-to-date oil production was up 33.3% compared to 2012. Year-to-date natural gas production in Moffat was also up by 6.1% compared to 2012. Year-to-date coal production was down 13.4% and up 7.0% in Moffat and Routt, respectively.

Retail Sales

Combined Moffat and Routt taxable sales in June 2013 were $106 million. This represents a 5.4% increase compared to June 2012. At the county level, Routt’s year-over-year sales increased by 4.6% and Moffat year-over-year sales grew 6.8%.

Employment

In August 2013 Moffat County’s unemployment rate decreased to 5.8% from 6.1% a month earlier. Routt’s rate dropped to 5.3% from 5.6% last month. The 12-month average unemployment rate in both counties continues to decline.

Real Estate

As of August 2013, Moffat average listing prices dropped to $185,000. In Routt, average listing prices were down 9% compared to August 2013. The number of Moffat county foreclosures decreased from 8 to 2 from the previous month. Routt county’s foreclosure rate decreased from 11 to 8 from August 2013 2013.

Climate

The average daily stream flow on the Yampa was running at 208 cfs as of Sept 24th which is 198% of the average level. The water level was at 94% of average at Stagecoach reservoir as of September 27th. The water level at the Yamcolo reservoir storage site was 17% of average as of September 27th.

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Fast Facts August 2013

Fast Facts August 2013

Moffat and Routt county’s economies are chugging along. Download the most recent FastFacts now.

The August FastFacts can be found on the Yampa Valley Data Partners website. The download is in PDF format and available to you now and for historical reference.

See below for August key takeaways.

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NEW! Top Ten Employer’s Report is now available.

Yampa Valley FastFacts Key Takeaways Feb 2013

Employment

In July 2013 Moffat County’s unemployment rate decreased to 6.1% from 6.7% a month earlier. Routt’s rate dropped to 5.6% from 6.6% last month. The 12-month average unemployment rate in both counties continues to decline.

Retail Sales

Combined Moffat and Routt taxable sales in May 2013 were $81.53 million. This represents a 0.5% increase compared to May 2012. At the county level, Routt’s year-over-year sales declined by 0.2% and Moffat year-over-year sales grew 1.6%.

Real Estate

As of July 2013, average listing prices held steady at $189,000. In Routt, average listing prices were down 7% compared to June 2013. The number of Moffat county foreclosures increased from 3 to 8 from the previous month. Routt county’s foreclosure rate remained unchanged from June 2013.

Energy

As of May 2013, Moffat County year-to-date oil production was up 37.5% compared to 2012. Year-to-date natural gas production in Moffat was also up by 10.4% compared to 2012. Year-to-date coal production was down 15.8% and up 4.7% in Moffat and Routt, respectively.

Climate

The average daily stream flow on the Yampa was running at 106 cfs as of Sept 1st which is 78% of the average level. The water level was at 98% of average at Stagecoach reservoir as of July 31st. The water level at the Yamcolo reservoir storage site was 17%of average as of July 31st.

Fast Facts August 2013

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Fast Facts July 2013

Fast Facts July 2013

The local economies of Moffat and Routt Counties continue to slowly improve. Download the most recent FastFacts now.

The July FastFacts can be found on the Yampa Valley Data Partners website under Products & Services. The download is in PDF format and available to you now and for historical reference.

See below for July key takeaways.

NEW! Top Ten Employer’s Report is now available.

Yampa Valley FastFacts Key Takeaways

Employment
In June 2013 Moffat County’s unemployment rate increased to 6.7% from 6.2% in May. Routt’s rate dropped to 6.6% from 7.8% last month. The drop in Routt County’s unemployment is most likely due to seasonal job availability

Retail Sales
Combined Moffat and Routt taxable sales in April 2013 were $77.22 million. This represents a 2.3% increase compared to April 2012. At the county level, Routt’s year-over-year sales grew by 3.0% and Moffat year-over-year sales grew 1.2%.

Real Estate
The real estate market in Moffat county is improving. As of June 2013, average listing prices in Moffat were up 2.0% compared to June 2012. In Routt, average listing prices were down 15% in compared to June 2012. Inventory levels in both counties were at a year-to-date high.

Energy
The Yampa Valley energy production figures have not been updated since April. As of April 2013, Moffat County year-to-date oil production was up 33.0% compared to 2012. Year-to-date natural gas production in Moffat was also up by 10.4% compared to 2012. Year-to-date coal production was down 13.7% and up 14.3% in Moffat and Routt, respectively.

Climate
The average daily stream flow on the Yampa was running at 154cfs as of August 4th which is 55% of average. Water levels at both reservoirs has not been updated since last month. Water levels is at 108% of average at Stagecoach reservoir. Water level at the Yamcolo reservoir storage site was 47% of average as of June 30th.

July Fast Facts 2013

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Top Ten Employer Report

Top Ten Employer Report

Yampa Valley Data Partners (YVDP) receives many requests for the top ten employers in our counties from businesses, employees and government entities. This report was assembled over several months by calling each employer for their employment information as of December 2012.

Employers are listed in two categories. The first category is the ‘Top Ten Employers’ who have the largest number of full time employees which gives us an idea of the breadth of employment in the year round organization. The second category includes full-time, part-time, seasonal, per diem, on call and regular independent contractors which will tell us how many people from Moffat or Routt counties the companies employ throughout the year.

• The most recent jobs data from Colorado Office of Economic Development & International Trade ‘s (ODEIT) Economic Modeling Specialists Intl. (EMSI ) reports the total number of 2012 jobs to be 7,512 and 20,841 in Moffat and Routt counties, respectively. This includes full time and part time jobs.
• The Moffat County top ten employers supported 2,255 of 7,512 jobs or 30% of the total jobs in the county.
• The Routt County top ten employers supported 4,549 of 20,841 jobs or 22% of the total jobs in the county.
• Routt County has more fluctuation in employment with a 50% increase in part time/seasonal employees whereas Moffat has a 15% increase in employment.
• The top ten employer list falls into 5 industry groups.
•Moffat: Energy, Education, Public (County, City), Retail, Healthcare
•Routt: Recreation/Tourism, Public (County. City, K-12 Schools), Healthcare, Energy
To access the report, please download the PDF below.

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May Fast Facts Now Available

May Fast Facts Now Available

The local economies of Moffat and Routt Counties are continuing to improve. Download the most recent FastFacts now.

The May FastFacts can be found on the Yampa Valley Data Partners website under Products & Services. The download is in PDF format and available to you now and for historical reference.

See below for May key takeaways.

Employment

In April 2013 Moffat County’s unemployment rate dropped to 6.6% from 7.5% in March. Routt’s rate rose slightly to 6.0% from 5.8% last month. Markets continue to tighten in both counties where the number of employed workers is growing faster than the labor force.

Retail Sales

Combined Moffat and Routt taxable sales in February 2013 were $115.56 million. This represents a 3.8% increase compared to February 2012. At the county level, Routt’s year-over-year sales grew by 10.3% and Moffat year-over-year sales were down 5.1%.

Real Estate

The real estate market in both counties continues to improve. As of April 2013, median listing prices in Routt were up 11.8% compared to April 2012. In Moffat, median listing prices were up 35% in compared to April 2012.

Energy

The Yampa Valley energy production picture is mixed. As of February 2013, Moffat County year-to-date oil production was up 34.5% compared to 2012. Year-to-date natural gas production in Moffat was also up by 7.8% compared to 2012. Year-to-date coal production was down 23.9% and 8.7% in Moffat and Routt, respectively.

Climate

The average daily stream flow on the Yampa was running at 2565cfs as of May 27th which is 132% of average. Snowpack is at 28% of average on Rabbit Ears Pass. Snow water content at the Tower reservoir storage site was 62% as of May 27th.

Download Fast Facts

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