4th Quarter Economic Forecast Newsletter – Moffat & Routt Counties

The Yampa Valley economy continues on a path to recovery. Most indicators with the exception of coal production, show improvement from the past quarter.

The unemployment rates in both counties have hit new lows with Routt at 5.3% and Moffat at 5.8%. The economic stress indicator remains within a normal balance which means unemployment is not stressing the Yampa Valley economy.

June retail sales in both counties were positive. Routt county had a strong June with lodging, food and beverage and construction sectors with double digit increases. The Forecast Center predicts national re-tail sales to be up for fourth quarter. Our counties normally track the same trends as national. October retail sales are forecasted up over last year 3.9%, November 3.7% and December 3.6%. The fourth quarter average 3% forecast will trickle over into January 2014 with a 3.1% retail sales forecast.

The real estate market has remained steady through the summer selling season. Average listing prices in Routt decreased to $515,000. Moffat’s August average listing price dipped slightly down to $185,000 from $189,000 in June and July. The number of homes for sale decreased in both counties in August perhaps indicating there were a number of sales in July. Foreclosures continue to decline with 2 foreclosures in Moffat and 8 in Routt for August.

The consumer confidence index has been in the 80s all summer. In September, the index dipped slight below 80 which is still strong compared to the 1st and 2nd quarters.

Yampa Valley energy has mixed results. Routt and Moffat County’s coal production was down 7.0% and 13.4% year-to-date re-spectively with a total state market share of 36.8%. Colorado coal production in general was down for the month of June.

Moffat County’s year-to-date oil and gas production was up 33.3% and 6.1% respec-tively. Year-to-date oil production in Routt was down 4.4% but natural gas production had a 41.6% increase.

Stream flow has increased since the end of August due to our wet September. Snow-pack numbers will return to the newsletter next issue.

YV Data Partners Economic Newsletter October_2013_FINAL

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